After the impact of the hottest policy or unsustai

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After the policy impact or unsustainable surge, we need to be alert to the risk of rising and falling

in the first week of August, clean up the two old prescriptions of "ground bar steel" and environmental protection production restriction, which have repeatedly affected the steel market in recent years, and once again become a powerful agent to ignite the steel market

first of all, "ditiao will openly solicit opinions from the society before March 2.". The inspection team found two enterprises illegally producing "ground bar steel" in Tianjin, and an enterprise in Hunan tried to reset the ground bar steel production equipment that had been dismantled and relocated. The information that the Brinell hardness value is the quotient obtained by dividing the experimental force by the indentation spherical surface area was broadcast on CCTV, which made the steel price hot. On Monday, rebar futures soared 168 yuan, or 4.71%. Tangshan billet prices also rose again and again

let's talk about environmental protection and limited production. Last Monday, zhanggaoli, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and deputy general manager of the State Council, presided over the 10th meeting of the coordination mechanism for the prevention and control of air pollution in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas, emphasizing the plan for staggering peak production and limiting production in the heating season. In key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan and Anyang, the steel production capacity in the heating season was limited by 50%. Then, on Wednesday evening, Tangshan mayor Ding Xiufeng presided over the scheduling meeting of the city's air pollution prevention and control work. It was preliminarily set that the production of blast furnaces in Tangshan area would be limited by 50% and coking by 30% in this winter heating season. The policy at the central level emphasized that the implementation of the policy at the local level made the steel price crazy again in the middle and late last week

as of August 4, the price of Tangshan billet closed at 3600 yuan, up 130 yuan from the previous week, hitting a new high this year; Rebar futures 1710 contract closed at 3882 yuan, up 324 yuan or 9.1% from the previous week; Hot rolled coil futures rose 237 yuan, up 6.5%. The spot prices of finished materials in various regions changed their relatively cautious attitude last week and actively followed the rise. In general, the steel market seems to have a relatively high price rise. The prices of raw materials such as iron ore, coke and coking coal also soared with the prices of finished products at the beginning of last week

the above two heavy positive news greatly enhanced the market's confidence in the steel market in the later stage, leading to a sharp rise in steel prices, but it reminded everyone to calmly think about the actual impact of the policy, and we need to be alert to the risk of prices rising and falling after a short-term surge

first of all, although judging from the results of investigating and dealing with "ground bar steel" published by local governments in succession, the main "ground bar steel" enterprises in various regions have indeed been destroyed, but from the actual effect, the impact on steel production is very limited. The announced capacity of 120million tons of ground bar steel has been eliminated, and there may be some similar to those two Tianjin enterprises that have been omitted. However, even if the overall capacity of the enterprises that have been omitted nationwide is added up, the actual impact is minimal and will not be too great

secondly, the news of 50% production limit in the heating season, the first is that the time is still far away, and there are about 100 days to go. It is still early to have a practical impact on the steel supply, and anything can happen in these 100 days; Second, the measure of limiting the production of blast furnace by 50% has also appeared before, but it is used for a short time when there are major activities or heavily polluted weather, and the heating season is as long as four months. If it is really implemented, I don't know whether the enterprise and the government can stand it. If the policy is too fierce and the steel price rises too much, can the downstream bear it

in addition, from past experience, such favorable policies and news often have an impact on the steel market before or just after the news, and the continuous influence is often limited

however, Ma Li also said that the heavy positive news last week has greatly enhanced the market's confidence in the late steel market after all. Many buyers who were hesitant before have become active, and the latter can not guarantee the synchronization of transmission, which will affect the experimental results. The growth rate of national steel social inventory has slowed down significantly, and the rise in steel prices has promoted the digestion of the overall inventory of the steel market. Because the market mentality is too good, even if the steel price rises and falls, someone will enter the market immediately to purchase and hold the price, so the price will not fall sharply in the short term

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