The hottest oil price rose sharply, and the crude

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Sharp rise in oil prices the crude oil market overreacted to the situation in Iraq

sharp rise in oil prices the crude oil market overreacted to the situation in Iraq

June 26, 2014 but when confirming the contraction rate

[China paint information] since the outbreak of conflict between the Iraqi army and the reactionary forces on June 5, the international crude oil price has risen sharply. As of June 23, Brent crude oil rose 5.31%, WTI crude oil rose 3.61%, As Brent crude oil is more obviously affected by geopolitics, the price difference between the two is also expanding, and currently remains between the US dollar. Geopolitics is an emergency that affects the energy market, and the impact will not last long. Moreover, the current armed conflict occurs between the Iraqi government and domestic extremist armed groups, which has a much smaller impact than the previous war between the United States and Britain on Iraq or the conflict between countries in the Middle East. This factor is difficult to maintain the rise in crude oil in the future

Iraq is located in the Middle East, the world's major oil producer, bordering Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries. The Persian Gulf is in the southeast, which is an important export channel for Iraqi crude oil. Iraq has proved oil reserves of about 150billion barrels, accounting for about 10% of the total proved reserves in the world, ranking fifth in the world. At present, the exploitation proportion is still small. With its low exploitation cost and geographical location close to the Eurasian market, Iraq has a great advantage in the crude oil export market. Last year, Iraq's crude oil production was 3.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 3.75% of the world's total, making it the seventh largest crude oil producer in the world

oil field owners in Iraq are all over the world. Here we mainly talk about the maintenance of several major aspects of the experimental machine. The quick implementation should be divided into three parts. The northern part mainly includes najmah oilfield and qaiyarah oilfield, accounting for 20% of the total reserves, the central part mainly includes badra Oilfield, accounting for 10% of the total reserves, the southern part has most of Iraq's oilfields, and Iraq has seven large oilfields with reserves of more than 5billion barrels, five of which are in the southern region, Among them, Rumaila oilfield, the sixth largest in the world, and West Qurna oilfield account for 70% of the total reserves. Due to the stable security environment and large crude oil reserves in the southern region, the current crude oil production is mainly produced in the southern oil fields. The average daily output of the five super large oil fields in the South reaches 2.6 million barrels, and the overall output of the southern oil fields accounts for about 90% of the total output of the country. Although the north is in the area of armed conflict, it is suitable to tighten the oil box to a torque of 8.5 kg when measuring the sintering load, but its main oil field is currently under the control of the Kurds and has not been occupied by ISIL. The Kurdish autonomous region exports the crude oil produced in this region through land transportation in the north, so it has not been greatly affected. After the outbreak of armed conflict, Iraq's crude oil production fell from 3.2 million barrels per day in August 2013 to 3.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.13%. Therefore, the current armed conflict has little impact on Iraq's crude oil production

Iraq's crude oil export ports include Basra oil port and Amaya oil port. 2.3 million barrels of the country's daily export volume of 2.6 million barrels are transported through these two ports, accounting for 88.5%, and the rest is basically exported by the Kirkuk Ceyhan oil pipeline. It can be seen that Iraq's crude oil exports are mainly transported by sea through the southern Persian Gulf, so the war in the Northwest has not had much impact on crude oil exports. Moreover, after ISIL controlled and destroyed some oil pipelines in the north, Kurdish crude oil was exported by land transportation. After the outbreak of the war, the export volume fell from the previous daily export volume of 2.6 million barrels to 2.5 million barrels in April this year, a decrease of 3.85%. The loss of export volume of 100000 barrels/day has a very small impact on the global output of nearly 100 million barrels

to sum up, the current war in Iraq is limited to the northern region, which has not had a great impact on the main crude oil production areas and main export channels in the south, so it will not cause too much fluctuations in the global crude oil supply and demand market. The driving force behind the sharp rise in international crude oil prices in the early stage is gradually weakening, and the oil price may have a correction in the near future. However, there has been no significant turnaround in the war in Iraq, so the correction range is limited, and the price center of gravity will move higher than before

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