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The hottest oil price will continue to rise, and t

2022-10-19

Detail

High oil prices will continue to rise at a slower pace

1 Crude oil market quotation in a week

varieties

6.30

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

changes compared with last week

wti crude oil

140

140.97

143.57

145.29

144.18

3.97

Brent crude oil

139.83

140.67

144.26

146.08

144.42

4.11 Singapore fuel oil one week market price

varieties

6.30

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

change from last week

Singapore high sulfur 180

700.50

706.90

717.45

741.95

759.55

62.85

Singapore high sulfur 380

681.50

689.25

701.95

724.40

745.45

69.55 2. The latest crude oil market closing report

3 As of 08/06/24nymex crude oil futures classified position report reportable position

(due to the US holiday on Friday, the latest position report was not released, which was released on Monday)

fund position

commercial position

reportable total position

non reportable position

report classification

long position

short position

arbitrage

long position

short position

long position

short position

number of positions

211137

186920

215921

807846

803211

71171

100023

changes from last week

7331

-4174

-3724

-17185

-19918

-13578

-27816

-15554

-1316

proportion (%)

16.2

14.3

16.5

61.9

61.5

94.6

92.3

5.4

7.7

number of dealers

125

128

256

266

4 Weekly inventory report of designated delivery warehouse of Shanghai Futures Exchange (7.4)

delivery commodity: fuel oil

unit: ton

region

warehouse

last week's inventory

this week's inventory

inventory increase and decrease

available warehouse capacity

subtotal

futures

subtotal

futures

subtotal

futures

last week

this week

increase and decrease

PetroChina Zhanjiang

54326

4300

54326

4300

291200

South Sha oil depot

35721

26368

-9353

41370

Guangdong

zhongran Zhuhai

9850

0<0

9850

Xiji oil depot

29550

Taishan Petrochemical

6100

3800

13700

7600

9900

45450

35550

-9900

total

105997

8100

104244

18000

-1753

9900

417420

407520

-9900 5. U.S. crude oil inventory for the week of June 27 eia

U.S. energy the Information Association (EIA) announced that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2million barrels to 299.8 million barrels in the week ended June 27, falling below the 300million barrel level for the first time since the week of January 25 The original market estimate was to reduce 100000 barrels Crude oil imports decreased by 83000 barrels a day to 10.17 million barrels; For cylinders with capacity utilization of refinery increased by 0.6 percentage points, it is best to add V-shaped bench points to 89.2% Distillate oil inventories rose for eight consecutive weeks, increasing by 1.3 million barrels last week to 120.7 million barrels, with an estimated increase of 1.9 million barrels Weekly demand increased to 4.3 million barrels per day, up from 4 million barrels the previous week Gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels to 210.9 million barrels, with an estimated decrease of 200000 barrels

6. Weekly evaluation of fuel oil:

WTI crude oil

Singapore high sulfur 180

Huangpu high sulfur 180

futures contract 809

last week's rise and fall

5.59

this week's rise and fall

3.97

62.85

276

total

9.56

100.85

trend analysis of 331 crude oil next week: high oil prices will remain, The pace of rise is weakening

at present, there are many positive factors for crude oil:

first, at present, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has been at the lower edge of the average value of nearly five years, and is still in the cycle of reduction. The U.S. Department of energy information (EIA) released a report on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2million barrels to 299.8 million barrels in the week ended June 27, the first time in a week since January 25 that the heavy hammer height can be set and displayed in real time to fall below the 300million barrel level The original market estimate was to reduce 100000 barrels Crude oil imports decreased by 83000 barrels a day to 10.17 million barrels; The utilization rate of refinery capacity increased by 0.6%, accelerating the composition of leading and pillar industries to 89.2% Distillate oil inventories rose for eight consecutive weeks, increasing by 1.3 million barrels last week to 120.7 million barrels, with an estimated increase of 1.9 million barrels Weekly demand increased to 4.3 million barrels per day, up from 4 million barrels the previous week Gasoline inventory increased by 2.1 million barrels to 210.9 million barrels, with an estimated decrease of 200000 barrels

Second, the hurricane season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, it is predicted that there may be named tropical storms in the United States this year, including hurricanes, among which there may be hurricanes with relatively strong effects

third, geopolitical factors are also the support for the difficult decline of oil prices. Supply disruptions in Nigeria and tensions between Israel and Iran could push up oil prices at any time

in addition, the US dollar index is in uncertainty. The dollar index broke down the support line this week, but then stood on the support line. The support line is temporarily effective, and the dollar may rebound. Pay close attention

Within ± 1% of the set value; When the rate is ≥ 0.05%fs/s

at the same time, crude oil may be under pressure for two reasons:

first, political and regulatory factors. The high oil price has aroused widespread concern all over the world. Last week, after the crude oil broke through on Thursday, the global stock market fell again, indicating that the high oil price and high rise have caused the world's concerns about economic growth, especially the negative impact on the world economy. At present, under the pressure of the international community, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission may strengthen the supervision of crude oil futures and OTC trading, Thus, it has a greater deterrent effect on speculative funds. In fact, this kind of regulation has had a great impact on the market. The main performance is that the net multiple orders of the fund have been significantly reduced. It has been reduced from more than 110000 hands on March 11 to 12712 hands on June 17, and the total position of crude oil futures has been reduced from 1.48 million hands to 1.335 million hands. Funds withdraw from the market

second, high oil prices have curbed demand, especially in the United States. The American Energy Information Association (EIA) said on Monday that the daily oil demand of the United States in April was 863000 barrels lower than the previous estimate, and 811000 barrels lower than the same period last year, the lowest oil demand in April in six years The EIA revised the daily oil demand of the United States in April down by 4.2% from the original estimate of 20.631 million barrels, with the final value of 19.678 million barrels, a decrease of 3.9% from 20.579 million barrels a day in the same period last year

at present, the oil price has risen to more than 140 dollars/barrel. Technically, the upward trend is sound, and it is still in the upward channel. However, the increase in the past week is limited, and the upward momentum is weakening. In the short term, if there is no positive news stimulation, there may be a correction. In short, the oil price is still in the upward trend, but the magnitude and intensity of the increase are slowing down. We should pay high attention to the possibility of price change.

as for domestic fuel oil, the lightering price in Huangpu market continued to rise by 100 yuan last week, reaching 5300 yuan/ton. Singapore's fuel oil rose sharply in the past week, reaching US $759.55/ton. Domestic fuel oil futures have increased significantly recently, and the overall trend is still high, but the range of volatility is increased at the high level, so it is not suitable to chase up and kill down. In terms of operation, you can buy after a sharp correction, and close your position after a sharp rise

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