The hottest raw materials become important constra

2022-08-12
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Important constraints of the raw material and paper industry

the strict implementation of the import waste paper control policy in 2018 is expected, and the "opinions of the CPC Central Committee on Comprehensively Strengthening the ecological environment protection and resolutely fighting the tough battle of pollution prevention and control through technological innovation, mode innovation and financial service innovation" issued by the State Council basically achieve the goal of zero import of solid waste by 2020, and the domestic waste paper price center may continue to remain high

overview of China's paper market

on the supply side, the new production capacity of the industry has increased since the second half of 2018, and the overall annual new production capacity is expected to be 14million tons; On the demand side, the demand for wrapping paper and coated paper with high macroeconomic relevance may be under pressure. The supply-demand pattern is expected to deteriorate in 2019, and the supply-demand relationship will shift from tight balance to excess supply

by the end of September 2018, the cumulative fixed asset investment completed in the paper sector had reached 21.37 million, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which was significantly higher than the year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% at the end of 2017

in the first three quarters of 2018, the paper sector achieved a revenue of 107.9 billion, an increase of 17% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10billion, an increase of 14% year-on-year. The demand in the peak season of the third quarter was less than expected, the price of finished paper fell back, and the high price of raw materials fluctuated. The growth rate of Q3 single quarter revenue fell to 7%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent fell to -0.2%

since 2018, under the joint influence of the ban on the import of mixed waste paper, the increase of the impurity content standard of waste paper to 0.5%, and the tightening of import restrictions, the number of waste paper imports has declined significantly. Up to now, 147.54 million tons of waste paper have been approved for import in 2018, which is 81% of the approved amount of waste paper in 2017. In the context of the tightening of waste paper raw materials, the price of domestic waste rose sharply in the first three quarters, forming a certain support for the price of paper

current situation of China's paper industry

retail industry is the main downstream industry of packaging paper. In 2017, food and beverage accounted for about 35% of the downstream demand of packaging, 3C electronic products accounted for about 15% and home decoration consumption demand was about 14%. At present, the growth of corrugated board consumption is relatively stable, with a CAGR of 4.5%. Considering that the downward pressure of the domestic economy is greater than the pressure of environmental protection, and the uncertainty of the foreign trade environment is increased, the growth rate of packaging paper consumption may slow down slightly in 2019

development trend of the paper industry

the boom of the paper industry fell slightly in the third quarter, and the main business income in the first three quarters increased by 15.5% year-on-year. How big is the impact of the high base on the automotive carbon fiber composite market compared with the past 10 years? The year-on-year decrease was 9.4%. In the third quarter, affected by factors such as the macro-economy, lower than expected downstream consumption, and Sino US trade disputes, the industry as a whole was characterized by a low peak season, and the prices of major paper varieties fell. The gross profit margin of the sector in the first three quarters fell by 1.3% to 21.6% from the same period last year

with the recent frequent release of easing signals from China US trade, the import of foreign waste is expected to rise further, and the subsequent leader in the packaging paper industry with a high proportion of foreign waste, as well as the core driving force of growth brought by the upstream and downstream integration logic of the industrial chain. The tight supply of domestic waste is expected to be eased, and the price difference between foreign waste and domestic waste narrowed, which is conducive to the use of domestic waste as the main raw material of packaging paper

considering the large amount of new capacity and weak downstream demand during the year, it is expected that the profitability of the sector will decline, and enterprises with costs and capacity will have an advantage

with the increase of China's GDP and international trade and the implementation of the "the Belt and Road" strategy, the paper industry still has considerable room for development. In the long run, raw materials will always be an important constraint on the paper industry. Therefore, enterprises that master the development of the original modern plastic industry can not be separated from composite material resources will have more competitive advantages. In addition, the large-scale operation of enterprises and the diversity and customization of some products will be the inevitable choice

with the intensive introduction of environmental protection policies and the combination of supply side structural reform, the state gives higher priority to environmental protection. On the one hand, it can vigorously improve China's industrial structure and improve the quality of the economy. At the same time, it can significantly improve the quality of the environment and fundamentally change the mode of economic growth

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