Soon after the hottest pulp was listed, it was rev

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Soon after the pulp was listed, the star phase stock futures target was half rainy and half sunny

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core tip: [China Packaging News] recently, the volatility of the domestic commodity futures market has increased, and the prices of industrial products represented by crude oil and black series fell sharply in November, Some varieties fell by more than

[China Packaging News] recently, the volatility of domestic commodity futures market has increased. In November, the prices of industrial products represented by crude oil and black series fell sharply, and some varieties fell by more than 20%. Among them, pulp futures, which have not been listed for a long time, have also become short sellers with "good intentions". However, A-share downstream papermaking enterprises were supported by the downward cost, and became the beneficiaries of the decline in pulp prices

pulp futures become short sellers' favorite

song Dongjie, an analyst of China Power Investment Xianrong futures, told the China Securities Journal that as a newly listed variety, the price of pulp futures fell by the limit on the day of listing on November 27, with a decline of up to 10%. The trading volume on the second trading day exceeded the 1million mark, becoming a veritable star variety

yesterday, the main contract of pulp futures once fell below the 5000 level, which is evident in the weak price. What is the reason for the continuous decline of pulp futures

song Dongjie analyzed the China Securities Journal that the decline of pulp futures was mainly due to the trading of the fundamentals of the paper market

first, the supply side capacity continues to release. Although the domestic and foreign pulp supply is in a low-speed growth cycle, the expansion of global wood pulp production capacity is mainly in Latin America, mainly in broad-leaved, and the production capacity of bleached coniferous pulp has not increased significantly. At the same time, in order to enrich and strengthen its own industrial chain, international pulp and paper giants continued to buy shares in pulp mills, further improving the upstream concentration, and the supply of commodity bleached coniferous pulp is becoming increasingly tight. Our supply of pulp is mainly imported and broad-leaved pulp. In addition, as an important supplement to papermaking raw materials, waste paper has gradually expanded in recent years

secondly, in terms of demand, the peak season of "double 11" has passed, and the demand has entered the off-season. Due to serious pollution and overcapacity, the paper industry has become the focus of supply side reform. In 2011, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Forestry Bureau jointly issued the "12th Five Year Plan" for the development of the paper industry to implement the supply side reform of the industry. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the industry eliminated a total of 38.72 million tons of backward production capacity; In the 13th five year plan, the paper industry will continue to eliminate 8million tons of backward production capacity, which will reduce the demand of paper enterprises for upstream pulp. The largest downstream demand for pulp is packaging paper, and the seasonal demand for packaging paper is very obvious. The second half of the year is the peak demand season, and the "double 11" has just passed. The delivery time of 1906, the main contract of pulp, is just in the seasonal off-season demand in June. Therefore, the current price continues to discount the spot price, which has been as high as 1000 points, which has basically reflected the expectation that the market trading atmosphere is flat and the spot price will weaken in the future

again, inventories are at historic highs, suppressing spot prices. The whole manufacturer is quite cautious about replacing equipment. The paper industry chain has been under great pressure this year. The output of machine-made paper and paperboard in China this year is significantly lower than that in the past two years. As of October, the cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard in China was 97.353 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. Among them, cultural paper and paper fell significantly. Affected by the decline in the output of the industrial chain, the demand for pulp fell this year, resulting in the accumulation of pulp inventory. Domestically, the inventories of Baoding, Qingdao and Changshu, the three major domestic pulp inventory points, are at a very high position. The total inventory of the three places has accumulated 1.41 million tons, an increase of 815000 tons from 595000 tons last year, an increase of 137% year-on-year

half rain and half sunshine

it is worth mentioning that during the continuous decline of pulp prices, some downstream Paper Companies in A-share market have become beneficiaries

taking Zhongshun jierou as an example, Dr. Michael zobel of the company's domestic household use also listed the first tier companies in the paper industry of other innovative technologies under HPM. The annual revenue of the company increased from 2.959 billion to 4.638 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased from 88 million to 349 million, with an average annual compound growth rate of 99.15%. In 2018q1-q3, the company's revenue was 4.081 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.74%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 313 million, An increase of 26.85% year-on-year; The company's performance growth rate is in the leading position in the industry, and non paper products contribute a higher growth rate

according to the research and analysis of the light industry manufacturing industry of Huachuang securities, from the cost side, due to the high inventory and pulp futures, the recent pulp price has loosened, and the pressure on the cost side of the company is expected to be reduced, and the performance in the fourth quarter is expected to maintain a good trend; The company's products are designed to optimize the quality, performance and value of customers' products, effectively hedge the upward pressure on the income side, and there is no risk of a significant decline in gross profit margin. In addition, with the increase of the proportion of high-end products, the gross profit margin is expected to further improve. From the cost side, the industry competition is slowing down, enterprises have launched a new round of capacity expansion, the sales cost rate has now fallen, the cost rate will continue to decline during this period, and the performance growth in 2018 is expected to continue

"on the whole, the company's performance growth rate ranks first in the industry, and the certainty of annual performance growth is high." The agency believes that

whether the discount exceeding 1000 points is a sign of inflection point

the current main contract of pulp futures 1906 has a discount spot of more than 1000 points, and deep discount is often an important indicator of market reversal. For pulp futures, does this mean that the price has entered an inflection point

"from a global perspective, the inventory of wood pulp is also significantly accumulating. The cumulative inventory of wood pulp in several major ports in the world has reached a new high since 2013. The demand is not strong, the inventory is high, the market confidence is shrinking, and the industrial chain circulation is not smooth, so the pressure on the pulp market is still relatively large." Song Dongjie said

song Dongjie believes that under the background of the continuous release of production capacity on the supply side, the peak season on the demand side has passed and the off-season is approaching, and the inventory is at a historic high, pulp futures continue to fall. At present, it has fallen below the 5000 level, the basis is more than 1000/ton, and the price is in an oversold state in the short term. In the future, with the adjustment of spot prices, futures are expected to rebound weakly to repair the basis

according to China Securities News, in the spot market, Qingdao Yinxing brand wood pulp is currently quoted at 6100/ton; The quotation of northeast black needle is 6100/ton; The quotation of South China Moon brand is 6300/ton

according to the analysis of Ruida futures, the weakness of the pulp market in the near future is difficult to change. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the quantity of wood pulp, waste pulp and papermaking has increased by about 10%. Coupled with the tightening of environmental protection, the downstream paper industry has closed down or reduced production in a large area, the operating rate has remained low, the production and sales of the pulp market are poor, the port inventory continues to increase and maintain a historical high. Under the downward pressure on the macro economy, The future pulp showed a weak trend of shock

"technically, pulp 1906 futures opened higher in the morning, then plunged, and the futures price fell below 5000, and the short-term pulp space continued to fluctuate weakly. Operationally, the pulp Futures Basis continued to expand, and the short-term fluctuation range was uncertain, so it was better to wait and see." The agency recommended

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